Research Paper Sample: Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Fossil Fuel Consumption

This policy memo will evaluate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuel consumption. In December of 2019, the first case of the novel coronavirus caused a worldwide public health emergency. This resulted in government-enforced social isolation and lockdown to slow the spread of the virus, directly causing an immediate halt of major economic activities. Several reports have collected research showing a sharp decline in economic activity due to the global lockdowns, causing a dramatic decline in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions. One study reported data from six economic sectors across 69 countries with results “indicating a 17% decline in daily global CO2 emissions by early April 2020 relative to the mean level in 2019.”  An additional study reported a “decrease of 7.8% in global CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel use during the first quarter of 2020 relative to the first quarter of 2019.” Although the instantaneous impacts of carbon emissions have ample evidence, the long-term impacts on energy consumption and emissions have not been well understood. By studying these effects, evidence can be provided to policymakers to prepare post-COVID19 economic recovery packages based on the emissions targets decided at COP21 in Paris.

The data utilized for this study was provided by the Global Carbon Project in partnership with the UNFCCC. The primary unit of analysis was CO2 emissions. The dataset is current of last year, published in May of 2020, however, observations were updated early 2021 to include emissions through the entire duration of 2020. The analysis is done over 69 countries, representing 85% of the world population and 97% of global CO2 emissions. In addition, there are 21 different values reported for each day of each country in the year 2020 (366 days), as well as average values reported for each year from 1750-2020. 

The variables used to evaluate the research question posed include country, year, daily CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry, and lockdown level. Specific relationships evaluated include: 

• Annual CO2 emissions in 2020 from fossil fuels & industry by major country emitters
• Average Global CO2 emissions from 1960-2020
• Country lockdown level & its effect on CO2 emissions in 2020

The variables are primarily measured under the influence of time, and in the case of Table 2 and Figure B, under the influence of national lockdown. All variables used in this study are quantitative. The basic descriptive statistics for the major country emitters are shown in Table 2, displaying lockdown level as determined by criteria set in Table 1. The independent variable in this study is time and country, while the dependent variables are CO2 emissions and lockdown level. 

The null hypothesis, in this case, was that there was no effect on carbon dioxide emissions from the coronavirus pandemic, shown through consistent trends from previous years. The alternative hypothesis was that there was an impact on carbon dioxide emissions from the coronavirus pandemic, and/or from enforced lockdown measures, shown through a decrease in trends or patterns from previous years. The method of analysis utilized was primarily quantitative analysis presented through graphs, however, limited qualitative analysis was used for tables. After evaluating graph types, it was determined the best technique for Figure A and B was a 2-D Stacked Area Line graph as this was the simplest and most effective way of presenting a large dataset over time for several countries to easily view the patterns and trends. In addition, qualitative analysis was used to categorize the lockdown levels based on requirements from a previous study. These were then compared with emissions from the fossil fuel and industry sectors in 2020 as those are the primary contributors to the energy sector: the largest example of human activity. Other methods used include a t-test and regression analysis. 

As seen in Figure A, each major region evaluated experienced a decline in annual CO2 emissions in the year 2020. It shows that global CO2 emissions have increased every decade since the 1960s, but various events have impacted trends within the decades. As seen in 2008, there was a sharp decline in each country shown due to the Great Recession and following the crisis, a “huge rebound” of emissions can be seen in the Figure in the early 2010s followed by a plateau between 2014 and 2016. This had scientists excited that emissions were peaking, but they then jumped again in 2017 and 2018. With emissions leveling out again in 2019, there was extended talk again about a peak in emissions, but with the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting usual patterns, conclusions remain unsure whether the peak has occurred or not. 

Figure B evaluates the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on fossil fuel and industry (FF&I) CO2 emissions in 2020. Emissions from fossil CO2 have declined in all major emitters shown in the figure; 12% by the US, 11% in the EU, 9% in India, and 1.7% in China. The graph also shows the impact COVID-19 had on world economies, with the peak of the decrease in emissions occurring in April. Additional research shows this was when lockdown measures were at their most comprehensive (as Table 2 shows), with a 17% decrease below 2019 levels.

Figure 3 ran a two-sample t-test to test the significance between average FF&I CO2 emissions for 2020 during lockdown months (March-June) versus non-lockdown months. Results here showed a statistical significance from one group to the other. Figure 4 shows a regression ran between the dependent variable over months in 2020 to test the strength of the relationship. As seen in the graph version of the regression (Figure 5) there is a strong correlation here. As the pandemic progressed, CO2 levels increased as the economy recovered. 

This study is important because CO2 emissions returned to near pre-pandemic levels by the latter end of 2020. It suggests that short-term adjustments within the economic sectors such as industry are not long-term solutions to combating the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. If there is to be a long-term, practical solution, a major reform will need to take place in the FF&I sectors to low carbon-emitting technology. The alternative hypothesis of this memo was supported with the results that were found through tends, statistical analysis, and qualitative studies. However, there were limitations within the data. There is not ample information on lockdown dates, and the lockdown levels assigned were generalized. Within the “lockdown duration,” there were different levels of enforcement within that time. In addition, levels of fossil fuel and industry were evaluated for CO2 emissions as they are the greatest indicator of mobility, however, results could change slightly if all CO2 emitting sectors were included. The memo results show that the economy plays a major role in greenhouse gas emissions, and ultimately climate change and that short-term changes (in this case, a global pandemic) is not enough to limit emissions to slow the climate crisis.