Essay Sample on Scottish Independence After Brexit

On January 31st, 2020, the United Kingdom - which consists of England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland - departed from the European Union, a coalition of 27 European countries involved with the trade, economic and social institutions within the European continent; this decision being notably known as Brexit, or British exit. These member states obligate some of their sovereignty toward these institutions to reach democratic consensus and decision-making for common interests at the European level; also known as European integration. The UK’s decision - primarily because of financial costs and barrier-free trade - was not of popular consensus - 62% of Scotland’s voters elected to remain within the EU but were outnumbered by England (53%) and Wales’(52%) popular vote to leave (BBC.). These telling percentages of Scotland’s disapproval were not temporary. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the perception of the UK’s mismanagement and inadequacy to handle the crisis has fueled a push for independence, with public polling showing 70% of Scotland citizens, predominantly Gen-Z and Millenials, in support of independence (Walker, 2020, The New Statesman). Scotland has announced intentions of applying for EU membership upon independence, but there are ramifications of eligibility beyond becoming an independent nation and public consensus; membership is not guaranteed. 

Scotland, from afar, could appear to meet the Copenhagen criteria, as did Austria, Sweden, and Finland during the 1995 EFTA expansion (EUROSTAT). This criterion for enlargement provides a checklist - of the sort - to decipher if candidate countries are satisfactory to receive membership. This includes economic, administrative, and political conditions; such as the protection of human rights, a functioning, and capable market economy, and the capacity to oblige by the acquis, an obligating body of principles and agreements for all member states (Bale, pp.390-394).

Scotland’s majority pushback against Brexit will likely garner the EU’s backing, however, it will still have to apply through the EU's standard accession procedure which could present complications of its own. Firstly, though Scotland is seeking its independence, the EU is intending on strengthening relations with the UK. For example, the EU-UK trade agreement, signed in late 2020, shows the EU’s intent on maintaining cooperation despite the withdrawal. The EU would want to ensure that after Scotland's exit from the UK, it would be compatible with cordiality and future membership obligations. It would have to know that tension or communication/cooperation barriers amongst the countries aren’t present. Should Scotland raise no immediate concern, though, then dubiety becomes one less objective. 

Though possibly getting accepted into the EU, the Economic and Monetary Union presents a different ball-park. Meeting the EMU’s four convergence criteria might be a challenge, as Scotland is heavily economically dependent on the UK. The criteria regard price stability, limited public debt, limited exchange rate fluctuation, and low-interest rates (Bale, pp.62-63). Scotland’s deficit has risen to 22.4% of GDP in the year 2021, in comparison to 14.2% for the UK (Brooks, 2021, The Guardian). These figures, though assured by Scotland’s finance secretary as not an obstacle for independence, could cause uncertainty for EU membership given fiscal deficits that surpass the eligibility limit for the EMU.  

The British government, unsparingly, has also ruled out the chance of Scotland using the British currency after they become independent (Euractiv). Scotland then, being ineligible for the € and unable to use the £, would have to establish its central bank and the issuance of its Scottish currency - a lengthy and complex task in an already unconfident economy. It’d be in Scotland’s favor to offer fixed exchange rates in either Euro or British currency; prospectively improving price stability and offering a smoother transition to the prospective Euro Zone, in the case that their current deficit improves. However, public polling from The Herald has found that 40% of Scots would less likely support independence should a new currency be proposed (The Herald, 2019). The trade-off for a converted, yet stable currency in which current conversion costs are reduced or eliminated results in the forfeit of regulatory independence, and brings forth associated financial risks brought upon its membering peers. And, while it will assist with trade to the EU, it will likely result in tense relations with the UK. Regardless, there will be ramifications with Scotland’s economic decisions moving forward - be it with public opinion, current financial deficits, or the economic risks taken with currency. Given Scotland’s incremental debt to GDP, and lost consensus on the right economic steps forward, its future, and place within the EMU appear unsure. 

The EU has had successful, unifying enlargements that serve as models for collectivism amongst nation-states today. However, Scotland’s aspiration for independence and later EU membership pans out an ambiguous outcome of its capabilities in addition to the European Union. Not only is its current economy languishing, but there’s prominent disagreement in regards to currency pathways - which will serve significance to their prospective role in the EMU. Scotland's discontent with the United Kingdom might lead to the idea of withdrawal as wise, but its application, however, might be premature.